← News and Updates

Analysis

Brazos County modifies their numbers

(and while it makes the numbers more favorable for Brazos County - it raises more questions than it answers)

DATELINE 18 APRIL 2020

April 18th communication from this website was sent to Brazos County Administrators including:

  • County Judge,
  • Election Administrator,
  • District Attorney

The email alerted them to the fact that this documentary would focus on Brazos County and that the state removed votes from the. I had hoped that they would be angry and I hoped they would respond and we could work together to get answers from the Secretary of State. There has been no response from any of these officials.

DATELINE 22 APRIL 2020

The Brazos County Election Office revised their numbers by issuing an AMENDED Reconciliation report. Below you will find screenshots of the original and amended reports. (These are public data downloaded from the brazosvotes.com website.)

WHAT WAS THE ORIGINAL PROBLEM

The original reconciliation reports from Brazos county had a 300 unexplained difference in the machine count vs. the properly cast ballot count. You can see below that the reason given was fleeing voters and mail in ballots not returned.

You can see that un-returned ballots by mail is listed as a explanation of the differences. Fleeing voters is another reason listed. In fact - a fleeing voter is indeed something that does happen. This is when a voter checks-in, marks the ballot, and then walks away and never deposits it properly. In general this does happen but it is rare. For example, a large County like Collin had about 10-15 fleeing voters in the March Primaries.

However this is very easily determined - because the number of un-returned ballots was provided to us on the form already. So if we look down at section 6 and 7 from the reconciliation report, you will see that when they amended the form, they did not change these numbers:

The important number is 116 Democrat and 136 Republican voters did not return their ballot by mail. This adds up to 116+136 = 252 non-returned ballots. So by simply plugging in these numbers - we can see what the original Reconciliation form should have said:

IF FIXED BASED ON NOT RETURNED VOTERS...

So the logical and accurate modification to the reconciliation report would be to modify box C to reduce the number of mail-in ballots by 116 and 136 respectively. This would end up being problematic because that would then leave 37+11 = 48 fleeing voters. That is a huge number. Notice that this is 1 in every 441 voters could not follow directions - compare this to a sampling of other counties that had fleeing voters.

Admittedly, since ballots are not personally identifiable once cast, it is difficult to find fleeing voters. A very large number of fleeing voters is an indictment of the policies and procedures in place at voting centers in the county - so while we dont know the reasons, this natural correction was not performed. Let's see what they actually modified in this amendment.


SIGNED AND AMENDED

Below we will see the amended reports. These amendments were made and signed by the election administrator of Brazos County. In so doing this person certified that the information contained in the report, "accurately reflects the official reconciliation of votes and voters" from the stated election.

DEM/REP AMENDED RECONCILIATIONS

Above is the Democrat modification - So lets break this down.
  • ITEM C was reduced by 136 - but wait - this is the Democratic sheet - They only had 116 democratic ballots un-returned by mail. Instead of using 116, they used the number of republican ballots not returned.
  • So now the formula is N = E - H - M Unfortunately they made a math mistake at this point. It should be -9 but they stated 9. That is a difference of 18 voters - and that happens to be difference in the -118 vs -136 modification.
  • However well-intentioned this modification is - it actually makes things worse. Now the difference is -9 which means that they scanned 9 too many ballots in the machines?
  • Normally we would ask where these 9 too many ballots came from - but in this case its not a true value since the modification appears to have started with a wrong number to begin with.

Now lets look at the republican side - those numbers look better.

This actually looks better at first look - however, where did these 170 votes come from? They already over-adjusted the democratic side by 18 votes - and there were only 136 republican votes that were not returned. This unfortunately appears to be a manufactured number pulled out of no-where to make the numbers look better. If the county is adjusting for un-returned ballots - then they adjusted too many votes. If there is another adjustment going on here we do not know about it.

So there is one more consideration in regards to the final lost vote number as originally presented in the documentary.

LOST VOTE UPDATE FOR BRAZOS COUNTY

The numbers in the lostvotes.us video are based on the original reconciliation report. Now as it has been adjusted, the lost vote count changes - and this modification by the county makes it look better for Brazos county - but does not help the state modification.

Here is the updated raw data look for Brazos county:

RAW DATA

I know this is busy - I will try to find a way to make this more clear in the raw data section eventually - but the bottom line is this: The lost votes count for Brazos County moves to from 634 to 346 lost votes which is -1.61% of the legally cast votes. The RED circle is the original calculation - the PURPLE circle is the new numbers.

Originally, The county had responsibility for 300 of the lost votes and 334 was the state responsibility. Now after the change, the county has 12 lost votes to account for, and the state still has 334 votes to explain. While the amended numbers puts the loss from 300 to 12 - that at first glance is feasible. 12 fleeing voters is still a high number, but its possible. However, by making this modification the way they did, they are in fact admitting that they ran too many votes through the machines.


THE TAKEAWAY

There is an absolute true number of legally cast votes in every county. This number is supposed to be canvassed and reported on the reconciliation forms.

Did Brazos county modify their numbers to remove the perceived liability from the conclusions of the documentary video? Did they prepare for people asking questions by making it look better? Or, did they make the change based on a true error that they found and fixed?

Since we cannot read minds and we will leave this up to you -- the reader -- to decide. Was this a botched cover-up? or was it an accurate adjustment and we just don't have enough raw data to understand it?


The big takeaway from all of this is can we really trust the numbers that our state and local governments tell us? It appears that we have to say no.


THE CITIZENS OF TEXAS DESERVE BETTER.